Watching for the moment things stop falling, not when they start going up
Tracks sovereign forced selling pressure. When Saudis stop liquidating dollar assets, the "dollar scramble" phase ends.
East-West crude arbitrage. Compression signals physical oil flows normalizing. Warning: crude normalization ≠ crisis over.
Must compress alongside Brent-Dubai. If both normalize together, logistics are actually fixed - not just headlines.
Second derivative signal. Bond vol vs equity vol. Tells you macro environment is stabilizing - not that gold has bottomed.
Junior miners lead bullion at bottoms. No divergence yet = gold hasn't found its low.
These signals track the sequence of normalization, not just individual indicators. The goal is to identify the character change - when selling pressure exhausts.
"Watch for the moment when things stop falling, not when they start going up."